Monday, January 26, 2009

The Appeal of Forex Trading Versus the Stock Market

Forex trading is appealing to many more people than the stock market does and for many reasons. Among the reason is the chance of a much greater return. Foreign currency fluctuations of just one or two percent, occurring on a daily basis, have a chance of returning great rewards to an investor who catches a wave of change and properly plans his entrance and exist strategy. Many people also like the fact that more leverage is available with foreign currency exchange. For example, 10,000 dollars can be leveraged to purchase as much as 100,000 dollars through margins. This allows the chance of great returns, even at only one percent, with less risk than might otherwise be necessary.

Also the market is open 24 hours a day for forex trading while the stock market is only open during business hours. Also many people point out that most forex trading is done without paying commissions, which can amount to significant savings.

Many people who don’t understand forex and have some experience with the stock market immediately think that it is risky and has low profit margins, some would say tiny. They get this idea however because less information in available on forex than other types of trading. Forex requires a trader to education himself. Rather than just turning on CNN or CNBC, a forex trader needs to read newsletters and find other ways of self-education.

Being open 24 hours a day and simply being huge is a big benefit for forex trading. A forex trader can literally work 24 hours a day, moving from the Asian market to the European to the American. Couple this with the leverage opportunities then the chances of large profit with forex are phenomenal.

Of course stocks have their advantage in that a person can invest in the stock market without really knowing that much and probably do fine. If an investor buys blue chip stocks they are unlikely to go down in value. For long term savings stocks are fine, but the short term large gains are definitely to be found with forex.

Many people don’t realize how large the forex market is. It is so huge that no single investor can corner the market as has happened in the past with some stocks, and also with some precious metals and commodities.

Forex is considered by some people however to be risky. Pension funds rarely invest in forex. However for the smart investor who has time to become educated, forex can be the way to go. The billionaire George Soros is a prime example of someone who has done well with forex. He shorted the British pound sterling and made $2 billion in profit at one point. He also makes over 60% returns on the Quantum Fund, which he owns and has over $4 billion under management. Of course, Soros has also lost money, but he says “I simply make a lot of money when I am right…and lose as little money as possible when I am wrong.” Soros admits to being right only about half the time, but does very well when he is right. Soros’s philosophy is to look at a country and its stock market and see if current trends are wrong. If he believes that a current trend is overshot then he goes opposite it, and makes a killing.

In October 1987 the stock market crashed and Soros lost a staggering $200 million in just one day! His reply to this was stoic, "I made a very big mistake, because I expected the crash to come in Japan, and I was prepared for that, and it would have given me an opportunity to prepare for the falloff in this country, and actually it occurred in Wall Street and not in Japan. So I was wrong!" While this mistake cost him a great deal, it wasn’t the end of the world. Soros philosophy is if he is right, he makes a ton of cash, and if he is wrong he pays for his mistake and keeps on moving. A prime example of how good money can be made in forex by investors who are willing to study, learn, invest and take risks. While not for the timed, the chances of a good return from forex make it the place for daring entrepreneurs to try their hand.

Who or what is Fibonacci and What does it have to do with the Forex Market?

Fibonacci strategies in forex trading are strategies for anticipating and capturing significant turns in stocks, stock indices and exchange-traded funds. They use classic principles and applications of Fibonacci numbers and a trading system known as the Elliott Wave. The idea is to calculate and predict key turning points in the markets, analyze business and economic cycles and identify profitable turning points in interest rate movement. Many forex traders benefit from the system and from Fibonacci. But, who is Fibonacci?

From 1170 to 1250 Fibonacci was the name used by the Italian mathematician Leonardo Pisano. The son of Guilielmo and a member of the Bonacci family, Fibonacci himself sometimes used the name Bigollo, which may mean good-for-nothing traveller. A brilliant mathematician who wrote several books, Fibonacci was a genius ahead of his day. He is most well known today for the sequence 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, etc, which figures prominently in what is today known as Fibonaccian mathematics, and has a quarterly scholarly journal devoted to it. Fibonacci introduced the western world, which until that time had used the Roman numeral system, to the modern decimal system, imported from Babylonia. The Fibonacci number sequence are studied as part of number theory and have applications in the counting of mathematical objects such as sets, permutations and sequences as well as in computer science.

Fibonacci believed that Arabic numerals were simpler and more efficient than Roman numerals. He traveled throughout the Mediterranean world of his day and studied under the major Arab mathematicians of the day, and returned to Pisa around 1200. In the year 1202, when he was 32 years old, he published what he had learned in The Book of Calculation. In it he showed the practical importance of this new to Europeans number system by applying it to commercial accounting and to conversion of weights and measures. He also showed how to apply it to the calculation of interest, money-changing, and many other applications. The book was well received in educated Europe and it had a profound impact on European thought. Still the use of decimal numerals did not become widespread until the invention of printing almost three hundred years later. Fibonacci was honored to be a guest of the Holy Roman Emperor Frederick II who was a fan of mathematics and science. In the year 1240 his city, the Republic of Pisa honored him by paying him a salary from the city.

In practicality Fibonacci’s numbers are used in the run time analysis of Euclid’s algorithm determining he greatest common divisor of two integers. It was also used by Yuri Matiyasevich to solve Hilbert’s tenth problem. The numbers are also used in a formula about diagonals Pascal’s triangle. He said that every positive integer can be written uniquely in a way as the sum of one or more distinct Fibonacci numbers and inn that way the sum does not include any two consecutive numbers, which is called Zeckendorf’s theorem. A sum of Fibonacci numbers that satisfies these ideas is a Zeckendorf representation. They are also used for tuning of musical interments in art to determine the size of formal elements.

The numbers are also commonly found in nature. They have been found in the patterns of leaves, grass and flowers, and branching in bushes and trees. Fibonacci numbers can also be found in the arrangement of tines on a pine cone, in raspberry seeds and other natural areas. Commonly Fibonacci numbers are seen in fractal Fuchsian groups and Kleinian groups, and in the solutions to reaction diffusion differential equations. Genes too and enzymes often show Fibonacci patterns.

Known in his day and recognized as a genius, he was able to see patterns that escaped most others, and only in the modern age of computers are his numbers and patterns able to be utilized anywhere near what he envisioned them to be used for. His translation of Arabic numerals to replace the rather limited and bulky Roman system of numerals is a debt the entire modern world owes to him. And certainly serious forex traders also owe a debt to this man from Pisa.

Five No Nonsense Strategies in Forex Trading

When considering forex trading as a profit making venture, it is important to work out winning strategies beforehand if at all possible. Making decisions regarding your forex trading and developing a strategy can be seen as your foundation. With your strategy you will optimize your risk with respect to the expected reward, or put the odds in your favor. Trading strategies should be disciplined and limit risk, while placing you at the most favorable advantage in the market. One strategy is the simple moving away average, which is based on a technical study over twelve periods, with each period fifteen minutes in length. This is a good example of a trading decision that is arrived at through strategy.

A simple algorithm is used in this strategy. When currency price crosses above the twelfth period, simply move away it is a signal to stop and reverse. In this way a long position will be liquidated and a short position will be established, both using market orders. This system will keep trades always in the market, with either a short position or a long position after the first signal.

Another strategy is of support and resistance levels. This is another technical analysis strategy and derives support and resistance. The idea is that the market tends to trade above support levels and trade below resistance levels. If either a support or a resistance level is broken, then the market will follow through is the direction given. These levels can be determined by analysis of the chart and assessment of where the chart has encountered unbroken support or resistance in times past.

Anther strategy that many see as exotic is called the balloon strategy. A balloon option is an option that balloons, or increases in size when triggers are reached. For example, if an investor believes that the dollar will gain strength against the Euro in the near future and is currently trading at 100, the investor will see 110 as being strong resistance, but the investor also believes it will be broken. So, rather than buying straight dollars at 100 for the next six months the investor will purchase at “at the money” balloon call with a 110 trigger and multiple of two. The investor will then own a 100 call in USD110mm. But if the dollar and Euro ever trade at or above 110, the 110 call will double to USD 20mm.

The double bottom is another strategy worth looking at. The double bottom is significant to the short term trader as double bottoms indicate a possible major change in sentiment and trend. The pattern is used on all times frames, and many powerful intraday and long term bull markets are conceived from this setup. Double bottoms reflect strong support levels. When prices fail to break support in the down trending markets on more than one occasion we see powerful changes of trend. These reversal signals are meaningful. The most common entry point where a trader will open on a double bottom trade is on a move through the high of the two troughs. This high will represent secondary resistance, and when penetrated confirms a price reversal. The stops are placed around the lows of he patters because a move below lows negates the pattern premise.

Another good potential strategy is the ichimoku chart. These charts are following indicators, which identify support and resistance levels and create trading signals in a way that is similar to moving averages. A big difference however between the two is that the Ichimoku chart lines shift forward in time, creating wider support and resistance zones and decreasing the risk of trading false breakouts. They are calculated using information on trend existence, direction, support and resistance.

The four main lines are:
• Turning Line = (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2, for the past nine days
• Standard Line = (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2, for the past twenty-six days
• Leading Span 1 = (Standard Line + Turning Line) / 2, plotted twenty-six days ahead of today
• Leading Span 2 = (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2, for the past fifty days, plotted twenty-six days ahead of today’s date.

Whichever strategy you choose to use, devote as much study as possible to increase your chances of gain and profit.

The Important Ways to Keep From Losing in the Forex Markets

The idea behind forex trading is of course to make money. However, like any speculative investment, there is a change of loosing money. The same holds true with the stock market and the commodities market, and in business itself. Any investment that has a chance of great gain will also have a certain level of risk. As a forex trader you will want to minimize your chance of risk. Do it in these ways.

• Stay informed. Read the news magazines and political events journals. Know what is happening in the world politically.
• Have a good understanding of economics. Take a college econ course if you never have. Read the journals of economics and books by economists like John Maynard Keyes, Kenneth Galbraith and Walter Williams.
• Read periodicals like the Wall Street Journal and Business Investors Daily.
• Open up a practice demo account and use it before you get into the market.
• Have a broker you trust.
• Cultivate friendships with other traders who know their stuff.
• Look at the historical trends. Read and study forex charts.
• Take a course in forex trading to get your skills up to snuff.
• Research forex on the Internet.
• And finally, only invest money that you can actually afford to loose if worse comes to worse. Then you won’t be out of the game completely.

Forex trading is not a game for the timid. Jerry Sparks was a forex trader who did very well for years. He followed all of the rules. His college degree was in history with a minor in political science and he went back and took extra courses in economics and business. Jerry stayed informed. He watched CNN, CNBC, MSNBC and Fox News often. He went to all the major web sites and read several magazines. He also spent time with a demo account before he got into the market in a big way. Jerry was determined to make a killing, and he eventually did. Jerry also only invested money that he had designated as risk capital. He could still live without it if needed.

Sam Franks, Jerry’s friend, didn’t do as well. Sam never took an economics course in his life and in fact was bored by Economics. He knew nothing of history or politics and didn’t even know who John Maynard Keyes was. Sam took his life savings and invested in forex trading without having spent time practicing with a demo account. He knew nothing of the currencies he was trading, and didn’t know what historical trends were, or what activity was occurring. He knew nothing of inflation, and in the end he lost some of his money. The difference in these two people is important. One was prepared and the other was not prepared. One made money and the other did not. One did his homework and one neglected it. What you can learn from this is that it is better to be prepared.

By knowing something about other countries and the activities happening over there, you’ll be better able to make educated guesses. For instance, if there is a great deal of inflation in a country, you may not want to invest in its currency. However, if you are hedging against that currency you may do well. Remember that it is never too late to learn. There are many good courses available online, and offline. There are many great books to read. Many economists write newspaper and magazine columns and many have web sites you can go to. By doing so you’ll be able to learn at the feet of the masters. See how their minds work, and what currencies they are currently investing in, and you’ll be in a better place when it comes time to make those hard decisions yourself. Also going online and meeting other people in forums and chat rooms who share your interest will give you more insight and knowledge. Like anything else in life, forex trading is a job that you must prepare for. The better educated you are, and the better prepared you are, the more likely you will be to be successful.

Forex Charts – What Are They and How Do You Read Them?

When learning to read forex charts, remember that there are two basic approaches for online forex trading. They are fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis doesn’t rely on forex charts. It uses both political and economic factors to help determine trades. Charts here are only used as a reference. Technical analysis on the other hand will try to predict where the prices are going by analysis of historical price activity. Those who use technical analysis study the relationship between price and time.

The most traded pair of currencies is the Euro and the US dollar, so we will use them in our example. The dollar is on the right hand side of the chart and the Euro is on the left hand side. The currencies are expressed in relationship to each other in pairing. Forex charges will always display how much of the currency on the right hand side is necessary to buy a unit of the currency on the left hand side. Looking at the chart you will notice the last price displayed on a given date. This number is always highlighted. The time is recorded horizontally across the bottom of a chart and the price scale is displayed vertically along the right hand edge of the chart. The time and the price are often in all caps to help the trader remember that technical analysis is about the relationship between time and price. That is a fundamental rule of this type of relationship.

There are many ways to observe the price and time movement on a chart. These include bars, lines, point and figure, and Japanese candle sticks, the most popular method. With the candlestick method there is a fat, red section that is the body of the candlestick. Lines protrude from the top and bottom and they are the upper and lower wicks. When you look at al the candles on a chart it is clear that bodies can be difference sizes and sometimes there is no body at all. The same is true with wicks. Candle wicks can be of many difference sizes, or there may be no wick at all. The length of the body and the length of the wick are determined by the price range for the candle. Longer candles will have had more price movement during the time that they were open. The top of a candle wick is the highest price for that currency while the wick’s bottom is the lowest price. A candle or currency is bullish when the close of the candle is higher than the open. In English this means that there were more buyers than there were sales during the opening time period. Sometimes the candles will not have wicks. The price opened and it dropped off until it closed.

Forex charts are not a sure fire method, but they are a tool that can help a trader. Many forex traders use charts on a regular basis. Historical trends do have their place in forex trading as most traders will admit, and using the charts to track historical trends can assist a trader in making a decision today.

Often the charts are online rather than on paper. By joining a service that provides the charts via the internet a trader is able to stay very current indeed on currency activity. Charts can be checked on a minute to minute basis. For those who primarily do their trading based on historical accuracy this can be a true help. Most forex traders however use a combination of the two approaches. They may chart historical trends, but they will also pay close attention to political, cultural and economic events within a nation. They may also use charts or other methods to check and see if a particular political event as a recent historical parallel that can be checked to determine how the currency behaved in past times. Simply following a system usually is not enough. A trader should also be, somewhat at least, a student of history and of economics. Using all the tools at your disposal will make you a better and stronger forex trader.

Eight Important Aspects in Choosing Your Forex Broker

When choosing a forex broker there are many factors to take into account.
• Trust
• Experience
• References from past clients
• Level of success
• Amount of advice to be given
• Convenience
• Amount of margin offered
• Speed

All of the above are of course important. In any financial transaction it is important to trust the broker you work with. This trust is garnered by the experience level the broker has. Of course there are some new brokers starting out who are quite trustworthy, but most people would rather work with an experienced broker. For that reason most new brokers attach themselves to a firm where they can be mentored and gain experience.

References from past clients are important. If your broker has helped someone else is successful in the past and that person is willing to speak up for him that says a lot. You can gage the level of success your broker has had by speaking with past clients and seeing how well they did working with this broker. Next, take a look at the amount of advice your broker is willing to give you. Of course, you make your own decisions and will never take another person’s word for everything, but it is good to have knowledge to work with, and advice from an experienced broker is key information to factor in. Convenience is also impotent. If you live in California then an Ohio broker might not be the best choice. But in the age of the internet that factor has become less relevant. With fax and email where you and your broker live has become less important.

The amount of margin offered is important. Margin is used to leverage your money. A broker who gives you a 50 to one margin is more valuable than one who gives you 20 to one. And of course speed. Is your broker quick? Does he return phone calls and emails promptly? If so, perhaps you can work with him.

Your broker will b a trusted advisor and someone that you may be working with for years to come so choose the relationship carefully. Ask friends and acquaintances who are active in forex trading what broker they use and how they met. It is quite possible that you can get a referral from a friend or acquaintance you trust and acquire a good forex broker that way.

Another good way to find a forex broker is to go online. There are message forums, chat rooms, and email groups through portals like Yahoo, Google and MSN that contain a wealth of information. Getting onto one of these online communities and asking other people for advice is the way that many people found their broker. If a broker has several clients in an online community who are happy with what he has accomplished for them, then that is a good indication that you might be happy with him as well. Take advantage of the number of people who are on the internet and join some of these online communities. Ask question and you’ll probably learn a great deal from the experiences that other people have had. Also find trade journals, magazines and ezines to subscribe to. Read as much as you can about the subject of forex trading before going into it. Become a smart shopper and smarter trader.

Finding a good forex broker is a job in itself. When you visit with a forex broker you are in essence conducting an employment interview to determine if this is the broker you wish to handle your financial affairs, so be thorough. Ask plenty of questions. Ask for references. Don’t be shy. Also check with other people in the office of the broker and see if you would trust them to fill in for your broker if he were not available. And, see if the broker is willing to offer you a demo account to use to get in some practice before you actually make an investment. If the broker is able to do so and encourages you then it means that the broker wants educated clients and is not just out for the quick buck. See what kind of training and tutoring the broker is willing to offer. A good broker will offer to answer your questions and help you through the learning process.

The Ins and Outs of Trying Out a Forex Demo Account

Trying out a forex demo account is a method used by literally thousands of potential forex traders and investors to determine if forex trading is truly for them. With a demo account, an interested person can go online and see exactly how an account would work. They are able to do the forex equivalent of the war games generals play in the Pentagon. Without investing and risking any real money the investor can pretend to have money in an account and make buys and sells the same way it would be done in reality. The software used for these demo accounts is very realistic, and generally a person is able to see at the end of the day if they would have lost or gained money if the transactions had been real.

It would work very simply. Let’s say an investor pretends to have a margin account with ten thousand dollars in it. He looks closely at the currency markets and believes that the dollar will go up in value against the yen. The demo account allows him to buy at a ten to one margin, so he buys (in the program) one hundred thousand dollars of dollars and sells one hundred thousand dollars of yen. There will be a spread, or difference, which amounts to the pretend profit.

Why would a person want to use one of these pretend demo accounts? The reason is found to be because it is always much safer to learn how to do this sort of thing without having actual money at risk. The same principle applies when kids in driver’s education classes sit in demonstrator modules that resemble real autos. They are able to practice driving without taking risk. They maintain heir safety while they build their skills, knowledge and confidence. Pilots follow this idea also by using flight simulators. You would never think of flying an airplane unless sufficient time had been spent in a flight simulator first. The same holds true for forex trading. Spending time with a demo account allows the potential trader to gain skills and learn the ins and outs of the game and the market place. A person is then able to see if they truly have the instincts necessary for the market and have sufficient knowledge to “play with the big boys.”

Most brokerage companies involved in forex trading have such demo accounts available, sometimes free and sometimes for a small fee. Even if a fee is paid, it is usually worth it because a forex trader can parlay his skills and knowledge into vast profits after spending some time practicing with the forex demo account. Generally checking with a broker can get a demo account set up quickly. A trader with an interest in setting up a forex demo account can also go online and find a vast array of companies ready, willing and able to help the student trader set up an account and enhance skills. Learning what you are doing is always smart, no matter what game you are playing, and forex trading can certainly be seen as an advanced financial game.

John Jackson is an example of a person who benefited from a forex demo account. After months of study of the forex market, Jackson was convinced that he could make a go of it as a day trader in the forex market. His wife however wasn’t convinced and was a little less risk inclined. Jackson went to a brokerage company online that he felt good about and trusted. He set up a demo forex account and began to make trades as though he were using real money. After several days, on paper, Jackson had made a consistent profit. As he learned and as his confidence increased he became even more anxious to open a real forex account and invest his money. His wife also saw how on paper he had made a nice profit and relaxed, taking away her objections. Today Jackson and his family do very well financially through forex trading, and his wife is confident that he will continue to do so. By using a demo account he was able to learn enough to go foreword and open a true account and is an active trader today.